How the Audience Estimator Works
If you’re wondering how the audience estimator calculates numbers—or why you might see different actual results—it’s important to understand that the estimator makes a best-effort prediction based on historical data and statistical modeling.
The estimator works in two stages:
1⃣ Initial Volume Estimation
The model estimates the total daily volume of people who fit into a given audience segment.
This is based on past behavior and considers:
The number of topics and how they overlap
The time window (how many days are being searched)
The frequency of engagement (how many times an action occurs)
2⃣ Filtering & Match Rate Calculation
The system runs additional filters on a random sample of people who fit the initial criteria.
From this, a match rate is calculated, which is then applied to the total volume estimate.
The daily estimate is used to project the monthly volume, factoring in how likely people are to move in and out of the segment.
How Should I Interpret My Audience Estimate?
As of Summer 2025, we’ve introduced new guidance to help teams better understand whether a segment is too narrow or too broad—especially for use cases like ad audiences, CRM pushes, or Slack alerts.
The estimate you see is a rough approximation of how many people may match your segment. Here’s how to interpret it:
Very Narrow – A very small number of contacts (potentially 0) may match this segment. Useful for highly refined or experimental playbooks, but often too small to trigger consistent action.
Narrow – Fewer than 1,200 contacts per month. Great for 1:1 actions (like Slack or pushing to CRM), but likely too small for ad audience targeting.
Moderate – Between 1,200 and 30,000 contacts per month. Ideal for both CRM/Slack and ad targeting. This is typically the most flexible range.
Broad – Between 30,000 and 100,000 contacts per month. Well suited for ad audiences, but may be too large for individualized actions like Slack or CRM pushes.
Too Broad – Over 100,000 contacts per month. This segment is considered too large for all actions and will be automatically prevented from running.
⚠ Pro tip: If your goal is to send contacts to CRM or Slack, we recommend aiming for segments in the Narrow range to keep the signal high and reduce unnecessary noise.
Why Is the Audience Estimate Off?
It predicted X, but I got Y people.
The audience estimate is based on historical data and typical search volumes for topics and filters. Several factors can cause deviations between estimated and actual results:
✅ Topic Popularity Fluctuates – Some time periods see spikes in engagement (e.g., seasonal trends, industry news).
✅ Behavioral Changes – External events, marketing campaigns, or competitor activity can shift audience behavior.
✅ Sampling Limitations – The estimator uses a subset of data to predict total audience size, and variations occur naturally.
While we strive to provide the most accurate predictions possible, real-world factors always introduce some variability.
🚨 Why is the Audience Preview Slow to Load?
Large audiences or segments with many conditions can be slower to load. Don’t worry—you can continue editing your segment even while the preview is loading. 😅